Context 🛠️#

Before I invest weeks or months building the Digital Bulletin Board (DBB), I want to make sure my idea has a realistic path to success. Rapid Viability Testing lets me quickly check whether my assumptions about revenue, customers, and market size make sense, so I can adjust my approach early instead of committing blindly.

Even for a small solo project like DBB, the numbers matter. If I try to hit a revenue goal that isn’t achievable, I could waste time building features or chasing customers that won’t move the needle. Running this test ensures I know whether my idea is viable before I dive in.

Step 1 — Ballpark My MSC (Goal Sizing)#

The Minimum Success Criteria (MSC) defines what counts as a “win” for me. For DBB, I’m considering:

• Level 1 MSC: $100k ARR — a manageable target I could realistically hit alone
• Level 2 MSC: $1M ARR — aspirational but possible if I can scale selectively

I need to choose a goal that fits with my personal capacity and risk tolerance. Since DBB is designed to be handled solo, Level 1 seems most realistic for now, but knowing Level 2 helps me understand the ceiling of what I could achieve.

Step 2 — Ballpark My Pricing & ARPA (Customer Sizing)#

Next, I estimate average revenue per account (ARPA) and how many customers I need. For DBB:

• Subscription price: $1,000/month
• ARPA: $12,000/year
• Customer archetype: Deer (~$10k ARPA)

This tells me how many paying customers I need to reach my MSC. It also helps me check if the value DBB provides — saving municipal staff hours, ensuring compliance, and improving citizen access — justifies this pricing.

Step 3 — Test My Early Adopter Segment (Market Sizing)#

Finally, I check whether my target market is big enough to realistically acquire the customers I need:

• $100k ARR → 10 Deer customers
• $1M ARR → 100 Deer customers

I also consider that my beachhead market should be 30–100x the number of customers I need, to account for adoption rates. For DBB, this might mean targeting municipalities with multiple boards or tight compliance needs. If my market isn’t large enough, I know I need to rethink my approach before I build anything.

Putting It All Together#

By running this test, I can quickly see whether:

• My revenue assumptions make sense
• My pricing aligns with the problem I’m solving
• My target market is sufficient to reach my MSC

If any of my assumptions fail, I can use 10x levers—raising pricing, solving a bigger problem, or pivoting to a better customer segment. Or, I may revisit my MSC, scaling my goals to what I can achieve solo.

Rapid Viability Testing doesn’t guarantee success, but it prevents wasted effort and gives me a clear roadmap for experimentation. For DBB, it ensures my product can realistically achieve traction and revenue while remaining manageable as a one-person operation, even before I write a single line of code.